Institutional Repository of Coll Elect & Informat Engn
The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai | |
Shi, Yiwei1; Feng, Donghan1; Yu, Sumin1; Fang, Chen2; Li, Hengjie3![]() | |
2022-09-10 | |
发表期刊 | Journal of Cleaner Production
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ISSN | 0959-6526 |
卷号 | 365 |
摘要 | Electric vehicles (EV) are expected to see a rapid growth in next decades as a substantial measure to achieve global climate goal. This course will be an unprecedented event in the industry history, and it will inevitably influence and change the power grid and the transportation network. The projection of EV population is the basis to coordinate the development of EV and urban systems. This paper proposes a modified Bass diffusion model to fulfill this task. Firstly, advantages of Bass diffusion model are analyzed, while car scrappage and technology competition with internal combust engine vehicle (ICEV) are involved to improve the model. Secondly, performance of the proposed model is evaluated with actual data during 2006–2020, and the EV stock up to 2050 is projected with the assessment of uncertainties. Thirdly, the policy on license plate quota and the ban on ICEV sales are discussed through experiment simulation. In a standard growing mode, EV is expected to dominant the new sales market by 2030 in Shanghai, and to completely replace ICEV before 2050. This research can provide a reference for urban power-transportation integrated system planning, renewable energy consumption, and carbon reduction path design. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd |
关键词 | Diffusion Electric power transmission networks Electric vehicles Energy utilization License plates (automobile) Urban transportation Vehicle-to-grid Bass Diffusion Model Case-studies Engine vehicle Global climates Population growth Population projection Power grids Rapid growth Scrappage Technology competitions |
DOI | 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132673 |
收录类别 | EI ; SCIE |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
WOS类目 | Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000822549600003 |
出版者 | Elsevier Ltd |
EI入藏号 | 20222712328707 |
EI主题词 | Population statistics |
EI分类号 | 432 Highway Transportation - 433 Railroad Transportation - 525.3 Energy Utilization - 662.1 Automobiles - 706.1 Electric Power Systems - 706.1.1 Electric Power Transmission |
来源库 | WOS |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | https://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/159423 |
专题 | 电气工程与信息工程学院 |
通讯作者 | Feng, Donghan; Zhou, Yun |
作者单位 | 1.Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Key Lab Control Power Transmiss & Convers, Minist Educ, Shanghai 200240, Peoples R China; 2.State Grid Shanghai Municipal Elect Power Co, Elect Power Res Inst, Shanghai, Peoples R China; 3.Lanzhou Univ Technol, Sch Elect Engn & Informat Engn, Lanzhou 730050, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shi, Yiwei,Feng, Donghan,Yu, Sumin,et al. The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2022,365. |
APA | Shi, Yiwei,Feng, Donghan,Yu, Sumin,Fang, Chen,Li, Hengjie,&Zhou, Yun.(2022).The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai.Journal of Cleaner Production,365. |
MLA | Shi, Yiwei,et al."The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai".Journal of Cleaner Production 365(2022). |
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