The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai
Shi, Yiwei1; Feng, Donghan1; Yu, Sumin1; Fang, Chen2; Li, Hengjie3; Zhou, Yun1
2022-09-10
发表期刊Journal of Cleaner Production
ISSN0959-6526
卷号365
摘要Electric vehicles (EV) are expected to see a rapid growth in next decades as a substantial measure to achieve global climate goal. This course will be an unprecedented event in the industry history, and it will inevitably influence and change the power grid and the transportation network. The projection of EV population is the basis to coordinate the development of EV and urban systems. This paper proposes a modified Bass diffusion model to fulfill this task. Firstly, advantages of Bass diffusion model are analyzed, while car scrappage and technology competition with internal combust engine vehicle (ICEV) are involved to improve the model. Secondly, performance of the proposed model is evaluated with actual data during 2006–2020, and the EV stock up to 2050 is projected with the assessment of uncertainties. Thirdly, the policy on license plate quota and the ban on ICEV sales are discussed through experiment simulation. In a standard growing mode, EV is expected to dominant the new sales market by 2030 in Shanghai, and to completely replace ICEV before 2050. This research can provide a reference for urban power-transportation integrated system planning, renewable energy consumption, and carbon reduction path design. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd
关键词Diffusion Electric power transmission networks Electric vehicles Energy utilization License plates (automobile) Urban transportation Vehicle-to-grid Bass Diffusion Model Case-studies Engine vehicle Global climates Population growth Population projection Power grids Rapid growth Scrappage Technology competitions
DOI10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132673
收录类别EI ; SCIE
语种英语
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号WOS:000822549600003
出版者Elsevier Ltd
EI入藏号20222712328707
EI主题词Population statistics
EI分类号432 Highway Transportation - 433 Railroad Transportation - 525.3 Energy Utilization - 662.1 Automobiles - 706.1 Electric Power Systems - 706.1.1 Electric Power Transmission
来源库WOS
引用统计
被引频次:1[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符https://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/159423
专题电气工程与信息工程学院
通讯作者Feng, Donghan; Zhou, Yun
作者单位1.Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Key Lab Control Power Transmiss & Convers, Minist Educ, Shanghai 200240, Peoples R China;
2.State Grid Shanghai Municipal Elect Power Co, Elect Power Res Inst, Shanghai, Peoples R China;
3.Lanzhou Univ Technol, Sch Elect Engn & Informat Engn, Lanzhou 730050, Peoples R China
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GB/T 7714
Shi, Yiwei,Feng, Donghan,Yu, Sumin,et al. The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2022,365.
APA Shi, Yiwei,Feng, Donghan,Yu, Sumin,Fang, Chen,Li, Hengjie,&Zhou, Yun.(2022).The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai.Journal of Cleaner Production,365.
MLA Shi, Yiwei,et al."The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai".Journal of Cleaner Production 365(2022).
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