Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Factors and Unreported Cases on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in Gansu Province, China

doi:10.1007/s11538-020-00747-6

	Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Factors and Unreported Cases on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in Gansu Province, China
	Jing, Shuang-Lin; Huo, Hai-Feng; Xiang, Hong
	2020-06-12
发表期刊	BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
ISSN	0092-8240
卷号	82 期号:6
摘要	Influenza usually breaks out seasonally in temperate regions, especially in winter, infection rates and mortality rates of influenza increase significantly, which means that dry air and cold temperatures accelerate the spread of influenza viruses. However, the meteorological factors that lead to seasonal influenza outbreaks and how these meteorological factors play a decisive role in influenza transmission remain unclear. During the epidemic of infectious diseases, the neglect of unreported cases leads to an underestimation of infection rates and basic reproduction number. In this paper, we propose a new non-autonomous periodic differential equation model with meteorological factors including unreported cases. First, the basic reproduction number is obtained and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free periodic solution is proved. Furthermore, the existence of periodic solutions and the uniformly persistence of the model are demonstrated. Second, the best-fit parameter values in our model are identified by the MCMC algorithm on the basis of the influenza data in Gansu province, China. We also estimate that the basic reproduction number is 1.2288 (95% CI:(1.2287, 1.2289)). Then, to determine the key parameters of the model, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are explored. Finally, our results show that influenza is more likely to spread in low temperature, low humidity and low precipitation environments. Temperature is a more important factor than relative humidity and precipitation during the influenza epidemic. In addition, our results also show that there are far more unreported cases than reported cases.
关键词	Influenza Meteorological factor Unreported cases Mathematical model Parameter estimation
DOI	10.1007/s11538-020-00747-6
收录类别	SCIE
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics ; Mathematical & Computational Biology
WOS类目	Biology ; Mathematical & Computational Biology
WOS记录号	WOS:000542611300001
出版者	SPRINGER
来源库	WOS
引用统计	被引频次：13[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	https://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/155162
专题	学科建设与学位办公室理学院
通讯作者	Huo, Hai-Feng
作者单位	Lanzhou Univ Technol, Dept Appl Math, Lanzhou 730050, Gansu, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	材料科学与工程学院
通讯作者单位	材料科学与工程学院
第一作者的第一单位	材料科学与工程学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jing, Shuang-Lin,Huo, Hai-Feng,Xiang, Hong. Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Factors and Unreported Cases on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in Gansu Province, China[J]. BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY,2020,82(6).
APA	Jing, Shuang-Lin,Huo, Hai-Feng,&Xiang, Hong.(2020).Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Factors and Unreported Cases on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in Gansu Province, China.BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY,82(6).
MLA	Jing, Shuang-Lin,et al."Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Factors and Unreported Cases on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in Gansu Province, China".BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY 82.6(2020).

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