Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission: A multi-city study in China

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138513

IR > 土木工程学院

	Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission: A multi-city study in China
	Liu, Jiangtao 1; Zhou, Ji 2; Yao, Jinxi 3; Zhang, Xiuxia4 ; Li, Lanyu 1; Xu, Xiaocheng 1; He, Xiaotao 1; Wang, Bo 1; Fu, Shihua 1; Niu, Tingting 1,2
	2020-07-15
发表期刊	Science of the Total Environment
ISSN	00489697
卷号	726
摘要	The purpose of the present study is to explore the associations between novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case counts and meteorological factors in 30 provincial capital cities of China. We compiled a daily dataset including confirmed case counts, ambient temperature (AT), diurnal temperature range (DTR), absolute humidity (AH) and migration scale index (MSI) for each city during the period of January 20th to March 2nd, 2020. First, we explored the associations between COVID-19 confirmed case counts, meteorological factors, and MSI using non-linear regression. Then, we conducted a two-stage analysis for 17 cities with more than 50 confirmed cases. In the first stage, generalized linear models with negative binomial distribution were fitted to estimate city-specific effects of meteorological factors on confirmed case counts. In the second stage, the meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the pooled effects. Our results showed that among 13 cities that have less than 50 confirmed cases, 9 cities locate in the Northern China with average AT below 0 °C, 12 cities had average AH below 4 g/m3, and one city (Haikou) had the highest AH (14.05 g/m3). Those 17 cities with 50 and more cases accounted for 90.6% of all cases in our study. Each 1 °C increase in AT and DTR was related to the decline of daily confirmed case counts, and the corresponding pooled RRs were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75, 0.85) and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86, 0.95), respectively. For AH, the association with COVID-19 case counts were statistically significant in lag 07 and lag 014. In addition, we found the all these associations increased with accumulated time duration up to 14 days. In conclusions, meteorological factors play an independent role in the COVID-19 transmission after controlling population migration. Local weather condition with low temperature, mild diurnal temperature range and low humidity likely favor the transmission. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Population dynamics Temperature Absolute humidity Diurnal temperature ranges Generalized linear model Local weather conditions Meteorological factors Negative binomial distribution Non-linear regression Two-stage analysis
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138513
收录类别	EI ; SCIE
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000537423900007
出版者	Elsevier B.V., Netherlands
EI入藏号	20201608422010
EI主题词	Transmissions
EI分类号	602.2 Mechanical Transmissions ; 641.1 Thermodynamics ; 971 Social Sciences
来源库	WOS
引用统计	被引频次：337[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	https://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/151170
专题	土木工程学院
通讯作者	Luo, Bin; Zhang, Kai
作者单位	1.Lanzhou Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Inst Occupat Hlth & Environm Hlth, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China; 2.Shanghai Meteorol Bur, Shanghai Key Lab Meteorol & Hlth, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China; 3.Gansu Prov Ctr Dis Prevent & Control, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China; 4.Lanzhou Univ Technol, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China; 5.Lanzhou Univ, Hosp 1, Dept Gen Surg, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China; 6.Lanzhou Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Inst Epidemiol & Stat, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China; 7.Hebei Meteorol Bur, Hebei Climate Ctr, Shijiazhuang 050021, Hebei, Peoples R China; 8.CUNY, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, Sch Publ Hlth, New York, NY 10026 USA; 9.China Meteorol Adm, Shanghai Typhoon Inst, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China; 10.Univ Texas Hlth Sci Ctr Houston, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol Human Genet & Environm Sci, Houston, TX 77030 USA;
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Jiangtao,Zhou, Ji,Yao, Jinxi,et al. Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission: A multi-city study in China[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020,726.
APA	Liu, Jiangtao.,Zhou, Ji.,Yao, Jinxi.,Zhang, Xiuxia.,Li, Lanyu.,...&Zhang, Kai.(2020).Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission: A multi-city study in China.Science of the Total Environment,726.
MLA	Liu, Jiangtao,et al."Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission: A multi-city study in China".Science of the Total Environment 726(2020).