Analysis of an age-structured tuberculosis model with treatment and relapse | |
Guo, Zhong-Kai1; Xiang, Hong2; Huo, Hai-Feng2 | |
2021-04 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 0303-6812 |
卷号 | 82期号:5 |
摘要 | A new tuberculosis model consisting of ordinary differential equations and partial differential equations is established in this paper. The model includes latent age (i.e., the time elapsed since the individual became infected but not infectious) and relapse age (i.e., the time between cure and reappearance of symptoms of tuberculosis). We identify the basic reproduction number R-0 for this model, and show that the R-0 determines the global dynamics of the model. If R-0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, which means that tuberculosis will disappear, and if R-0 > 1, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium that attracts all solutions that can cause the spread of tuberculosis. Based on the tuberculosis data in China from 2007 to 2018, we use GreyWolf Optimizer algorithm to find the optimal parameter values and initial values of the model. Furthermore, we perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to identify the parameters that have significant impact on the basic reproduction number. Finally, we give an effective measure to reach the goal of WHO of reducing the incidence of tuberculosis by 80% by 2030 compared to 2015. |
关键词 | Tuberculosis Latent age Relapse age GWO algorithm Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis |
DOI | 10.1007/s00285-021-01595-1 |
收录类别 | SCIE ; SCOPUS |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS研究方向 | Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics ; Mathematical & Computational Biology |
WOS类目 | Biology ; Mathematical & Computational Biology |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000636717900002 |
出版者 | SPRINGER HEIDELBERG |
来源库 | WOS |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | https://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/148281 |
专题 | 理学院 学科建设与学位办公室 |
通讯作者 | Huo, Hai-Feng |
作者单位 | 1.Lanzhou Jiaotong Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat, Lanzhou 730070, Peoples R China; 2.Lanzhou Univ Technol, Dept Appl Math, Lanzhou 730050, Gansu, Peoples R China |
通讯作者单位 | 材料科学与工程学院 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guo, Zhong-Kai,Xiang, Hong,Huo, Hai-Feng. Analysis of an age-structured tuberculosis model with treatment and relapse[J]. JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY,2021,82(5). |
APA | Guo, Zhong-Kai,Xiang, Hong,&Huo, Hai-Feng.(2021).Analysis of an age-structured tuberculosis model with treatment and relapse.JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY,82(5). |
MLA | Guo, Zhong-Kai,et al."Analysis of an age-structured tuberculosis model with treatment and relapse".JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY 82.5(2021). |
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