Propagation dynamics of COVID-19 in high-risk population dynamic network

doi:10.7641/CTA.2020.00072

IR > 计算机与通信学院

	Propagation dynamics of COVID-19 in high-risk population dynamic network
	Shi, Ya-Yong; Nian, Fu-Zhong; Liu, Jin-Shuo; Cao, Jun
	2020-03-01
发表期刊	Kongzhi Lilun Yu Yingyong/Control Theory and Applications
ISSN	10008152
卷号	37 期号:3 页码:461-468
摘要	In order to understand the influencing factors affecting the spread of new coronavirus pneumonia and analyze the development trend of the epidemic situation in mainland China, a COVID-19 propagation model based on the high-risk population dynamic network to simulate the spread of new coronavirus pneumonia in the population is proposed in this paper. First of all, this paper counts the infections in various regions of mainland China from January 16 to February 6, and analyzes the epidemic data of each region through factors such as population flow, geographical location, and economic development. An epidemic-growth index was proposed to quantify the epidemic situation in various regions. Then, based on the propagation characteristics of COVID-19 in the population, this paper constructed the high-risk population dynamic network by taking the high-risk population as the research object. The COVID-19 propagation model redefines the infection rate, latent rate, and withdrawal rate in the SEIR model. Based on the high-risk population dynamic network, it predicts and analyzes the development trend of the epidemic situation in mainland China. The simulation data and the published confirmed data could fit well, which also verified the reliability of the model. Finally, the model also verifies the effectiveness of protective measures. © 2020, Editorial Department of Control Theory & Applications South China University of Technology. All right reserved.
关键词	Epidemiology Geographical regions Population dynamics Development trends Geographical locations Propagation characteristics Propagation dynamics Propagation modeling Protective measures Research object Simulation data
DOI	10.7641/CTA.2020.00072
收录类别	EI
语种	中文
出版者	South China University of Technology
EI入藏号	20202208714079
EI主题词	Population statistics
EI分类号	461.7 Health Care - 971 Social Sciences
来源库	Compendex
分类代码	461.7 Health Care - 971 Social Sciences
引用统计	无
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	https://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/115041
专题	计算机与通信学院
作者单位	School of Computer & Communication, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou; Gansu; 730050, China
第一作者单位	兰州理工大学
第一作者的第一单位	兰州理工大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shi, Ya-Yong,Nian, Fu-Zhong,Liu, Jin-Shuo,et al. Propagation dynamics of COVID-19 in high-risk population dynamic network[J]. Kongzhi Lilun Yu Yingyong/Control Theory and Applications,2020,37(3):461-468.
APA	Shi, Ya-Yong,Nian, Fu-Zhong,Liu, Jin-Shuo,&Cao, Jun.(2020).Propagation dynamics of COVID-19 in high-risk population dynamic network.Kongzhi Lilun Yu Yingyong/Control Theory and Applications,37(3),461-468.
MLA	Shi, Ya-Yong,et al."Propagation dynamics of COVID-19 in high-risk population dynamic network".Kongzhi Lilun Yu Yingyong/Control Theory and Applications 37.3(2020):461-468.