Lanzhou University of Technology Institutional Repository (LUT_IR)
Modeling and analysis of a H1N1 model with relapse and effect of Twitter | |
Huo, Hai-Feng; Jing, Shuang-Lin; Wang, Xun-Yang; Xiang, Hong | |
2020-12-15 | |
发表期刊 | Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications |
ISSN | 03784371 |
卷号 | 560 |
摘要 | Twitter can play an important role in the control of influenza epidemics. We introduce a quantitative approach to evaluate the effects of Twitter on the modeling of the spread of influenza epidemics in this paper. Statistically significant correlations between the number of the percentage of tweets that are self-reporting flu and data of influenza-like illness reported cases are found from Pearson correlation and cross-correlation analyses, during the 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak in England. A new H1N1 model with relapse which involves impact of Twitter are also proposed. Stability of all the equilibria of our model are obtained. The occurrence of backward and forward bifurcation are also established. The best-fit parameter values in our model are identified by gray wolf optimizer and nonlinear least square method from the above data. For determining key parameters during the outbreak of the disease with Twitter impact, the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are explored by using a Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method and evaluating the partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs). Our results show that Twitter reports have important implications for the control of infectious diseases and Twitter can serve as a good indicator of influenza epidemics. © 2020 Elsevier B.V. |
关键词 | Correlation methods Disease control Diseases Least squares approximations Sensitivity analysis Uncertainty analysis Cross-correlation analysis Influenza epidemics Latin hypercube sampling Nonlinear least square methods Partial rank correlation coefficients Pearson correlation Quantitative approach Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis |
DOI | 10.1016/j.physa.2020.125136 |
收录类别 | SCI ; SCIE ; EI |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS研究方向 | Physics |
WOS类目 | Physics, Multidisciplinary |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000580429800017 |
出版者 | Elsevier B.V. |
EI入藏号 | 20203509109250 |
EI主题词 | Social networking (online) |
EI分类号 | 723 Computer Software, Data Handling and Applications - 921 Mathematics - 921.6 Numerical Methods - 922.1 Probability Theory - 922.2 Mathematical Statistics |
来源库 | Compendex |
分类代码 | 723 Computer Software, Data Handling and Applications - 921 Mathematics - 921.6 Numerical Methods - 922.1 Probability Theory - 922.2 Mathematical Statistics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | https://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/114983 |
专题 | 学科建设与学位办公室 理学院 |
通讯作者 | Huo, Hai-Feng |
作者单位 | Lanzhou Univ Technol, Dept Appl Math, Lanzhou 730050, Gansu, Peoples R China |
第一作者单位 | 材料科学与工程学院 |
通讯作者单位 | 材料科学与工程学院 |
第一作者的第一单位 | 材料科学与工程学院 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huo, Hai-Feng,Jing, Shuang-Lin,Wang, Xun-Yang,et al. Modeling and analysis of a H1N1 model with relapse and effect of Twitter[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2020,560. |
APA | Huo, Hai-Feng,Jing, Shuang-Lin,Wang, Xun-Yang,&Xiang, Hong.(2020).Modeling and analysis of a H1N1 model with relapse and effect of Twitter.Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,560. |
MLA | Huo, Hai-Feng,et al."Modeling and analysis of a H1N1 model with relapse and effect of Twitter".Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 560(2020). |
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